A fast-growing number of countries have launched national strategies aimed at seizing the benefits (and avoiding the perils) that will accompany the arrival of quantum computing and related technologies.
A kind of technological Olympics is afoot, with countries vying for a coveted spot atop the podium. Rather than a gold medal, nations aspire to be first in the global race toward quantum computing.
The stakes of this race are bigger than bragging rights; countries at the forefront of quantum technology will surge forward in practically every other regard – research, manufacturing, transportation, finance, and beyond – thanks to the unprecedented power of quantum computation.
In both the Olympics and the quantum race, the wealthiest and most populous countries have invested the most. China’s investment in quantum research and tech is nearly double that of the EU and triple that of the United States, with roughly 20 other countries following behind those three.
Canada codifies quantum commitment
Late last year, I moderated a panel discussion in Calgary about Canada’s standing in the global race to quantum technologies.
The Canadian government had, nine months prior, unveiled its National Quantum Strategy – a $360 million ($260 million USD) commitment aimed at maintaining and enhancing the country’s competitive edge in quantum information research and technology. Canada had become the latest in a growing list of countries that have codified national strategies on how to develop and benefit from real-world quantum technologies that were barely imaginable 20 years ago.
The panel I moderated at the inaugural qConnect conference included the country’s two top advisors to the strategy, Raymond Laflamme (former director of the Institute for Quantum Computing) and Stephanie Simmons (a quantum information professor and Chief Quantum Officer of Photonic, Inc.); they were joined by Canada’s Assistant Deputy Minister of Science and Research, Nipun Vats, a key architect of the strategy.
As moderator, my goal was to spark a conversation anchored around a basic question: how does Canada – or any country with quantum aspirations – turn a quantum strategy into real-world solutions and benefits?
From blackboard to big business
Although the field of quantum computing has occupied physicists for several decades, recent years have seen quantum technologies quickly moving from blackboard to lab to startups and big business. A 2022 study published in EPJ Quantum Technology found that roughly 92 percent of quantum technology startups had been launched in the preceding 10 years, and 68 percent within the preceding five years.
The tone of the panel discussion was a blend of confidence and anxiety – confidence that Canada’s early and ongoing investments in quantum research have put it in strong standing globally, anxiety that other countries are sprinting to catch up and seize the baton at a critical moment.
A study commissioned by Canada’s National Research Council in 2020 estimated that, by 2045, quantum science and technology will be a $139 billion industry ($100 billion USD) in Canada alone (including all economic effects), accounting for 209,200 jobs.
Roughly 20 other countries – including the US, the UK, India, Israel, and Japan – have codified national quantum strategies since 2018, each aimed at creating fertile ground for research; applications spanning medicine, military, and communications; and the resulting national prosperity. One country has invested significantly more than any other, and accounts for nearly 50 percent of all government investment in quantum research and development (R&D): China.
Chasing China
Though precise numbers for Chinese government funding are not available, estimates by The Quantum Insider and McKinsey & Company put China’s investment in quantum at approximately $15 billion* as of 2022; even with a large margin of error, that puts China’s investments well ahead of those by the EU ($8.4 billion) and the US ($3.7 billion).
“The rising tensions between China and the US with geopolitical risks straining global supply chains have prompted China to seek technological sovereignty in advanced semiconductors, quantum technology, AI, and more,” reads The Quantum Insider’s report. “As a result, China has increased its state funding to an estimated (but highly disputed) >$15 billion in quantum research and advancement with its assorted applications from security to defense to AI.”
Although China leads the world in public investment in quantum, it lags behind other countries – including the US, UK, and Canada – in private-sector investment. Whereas Chinese quantum startups received $482 million between 2001 and 2022, that figure tops $1 billion in both Canada and the UK, according to the McKinsey & Company report.
Partly in response to China’s massive investments, the United States has more than doubled its budget on quantum research at national laboratories and universities since 2019, from roughly $400 million to $850 million. The US National Quantum Initiative was signed into law in 2018 to “accelerate quantum research and development for the economic and national security of the United States.”
A truly global race
Roughly 20 other countries have launched national strategies of varying scope and financial investment, and more countries have plans to do so. What the strategies share is the expression of urgency that the long-anticipated quantum information revolution is afoot and countries need to quickly organize their quantum expertise, which is typically peppered across the map in relatively autonomous universities and research labs.
France launched its National Strategy for Quantum Technologies in 2021 with a $2.2 billion quantum plan with investment in startups, scientific infrastructure, training for students and postdocs, and the development of first-generation noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) accelerators (characterized by quantum processors containing up to 1,000 qubits that are not yet capable of achieving quantum advantage, but represent a technological step forward nonetheless).
Germany has dedicated $2.4 billion to develop “Clusters of Excellence” in quantum computing, develop quantum communication, and train future executives in quantum technologies.
India launched a five-year (2020-24) $1.08 billion budget with a focus on fundamental science, R&D, and entrepreneurship in four areas: computing, materials, communications, and sensing/metrology.
Japan unveiled its Quantum Technology Innovation Strategy in 2020 with a budget of $206 million with the aim of creating five quantum innovation centres and at least 10 venture companies tied to areas of quantum science, AI, biotechnology, and security.
The Netherlands announced its National Agenda for Quantum Technology: Quantum Delta NL in 2019 with a focus on three catalyst programs: developing Europe’s first full quantum computing platform, building a National Quantum Network, and innovating quantum sensors.
Singapore’s Quantum Engineering Program, spanning 2018 to 2025, supports the country’s Centre for Quantum Technologies, as well as commercialization projects with SGInnovate, the development of quantum key distribution (QKD) security for Singtel’s fibre network, and a QKD-equipped satellite.
The United Kingdom’s National Quantum Technologies Programme is a roughly $1.2 billion pledge to develop four quantum technology hubs and a National Quantum Computing Centre.
Though they vary in scope, focus, and funding, all the strategies share “two overarching policy goals,” according to a report called “A Quantum Revolution: Report on Global Policies for Quantum Technology,” issued in 2021 by CIFAR. Co-authors Johnny Kung and Muriam Fancy write:
“First, governments may act as national conveners, gathering multiple stakeholders to build a network for research and design. There is a heavy emphasis on the role of research centres of excellence or innovation hubs… where academic researchers can work in collaboration with government and industry to advance research, identify areas of application, and launch startups. The second policy goal is to facilitate the translation of research into applications and their commercialization. There is a strong incentive for countries to stake their ground in the global quantum economy by providing funding and resources towards nurturing a local ecosystem for the development of quantum technologies.”
The report finds that countries seeking a quantum advantage are all working to support a thriving startup scene and strengthen the supply chain of quantum technology components, such as chips, satellites, and fibres required for a quantum internet.
A question of national security
Frontrunners in the global quantum race seek not only technological and financial dividends, but national security interests. Quantum computers will break the cryptography that currently safeguards much of our private data, so building quantum-safe infrastructure – especially financial and military – is an increasingly urgent concern.
Raymond Laflamme, one of the speakers on that panel I moderated in Calgary, was among the first generation of scientists to consider quantum computing – and he was initially determined to prove the idea was an impossible pipe dream. The more he tried to disprove it in the late 1990s, the more he realized how real and revolutionary quantum technologies could be – for better or worse.
“Emerging quantum computers present an urgent national security issue. We must assume that malicious actors are storing today’s internet traffic to break the cryptography later,” Laflamme and co-authors wrote in an op-ed for The Hill Times in July 2024. “Building secure cryptography and quantum technology presents a unique opportunity to bolster Canada’s economic productivity and military capability. One path is through increased research and development (R&D) expenditures appropriated under the defence budget.”
The global quantum race is akin to the race to the moon of the 1960s, but now there are many more competing players. Given the technological, social, and financial advantages available to the winner, the quantum moonshot has the potential to change the world.
* Unless otherwise noted, all monetary figures are given in USD.
Colin Hunter is a science communicator, filmmaker, and contributor to FirstPrinciples. He previously led the communications teams at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics and the Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) at the University of Waterloo.
